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| 硅谷小公司挑战Google将成唐吉诃德 |
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来源: 21世纪经济报道 时间:2007-2-10 14:36:32 作者: 编辑:李丹凤 |
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2007年第一天,《纽约时报》一篇“In Silicon Valley, the Race Is On to Trump Google”报道,说明现今硅谷里一堆冒出来的新兴搜寻引擎公司,充满野心地要向Google挑战。 其中一段描述,对最近网络世界的泡沫十分贴切: These ambitious quests reflect the renewed optimism sweeping technology centers like Silicon Valley and fueling a nascent Internet boom. It also shows how much the new Internet economy resembles a planetary system where everything and everyone orbits around search in general, and around Google in particular. Silicon Valley is filled with start-ups whose main business proposition is to be bought by Google, or for that matter by Yahoo or Microsoft. Countless other start-ups rely on Google as their primary driver of traffic or on Google's powerful advertising system as their primary source of income. Virtually all new companies compete with Google for scarce engineering talent. And divining Google's next move has become a fixation for scores of technology blogs and a favorite parlor game among technology investors. 从该段文字不难看出网络上充斥两种心态:一种就是等待被Google、微软、Yahoo等大厂相中并购的投机心态;另一种就是以Google之类的广告为唯一收入的经营形态。 前者我已经写过文章批评,不再赘述。后者我大胆预言:一两年内将会因为“信息通膨”的关系,越来越难以维持营运网站所需的利润! 为什么? 因为一个特殊领域里也会有“社群最适数目”;当同一个领域有太多社群被建立后,依据我过去文章的逻辑,信息交易成本将会不减反大幅增加。造成使用者会往信息成本较低的地方走,形成“大者恒大,小者濒死”的网站生态。 所以,大型社群网站靠Google获利可能性将远比小网站高得许多! 未来希冀透过Blog之类网络出版维生的小网站将一一倒掉,这个Blog泡沫将会有一番破灭重整。 本新闻共2页,当前在第1页 1 2 | |
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